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No 1131:
Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision

Brian Hill (), Richard Bradley and Casey Helgeson

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC's novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

Keywords: climate; change; confidence; (follow links to similar papers)

28 pages, January 28, 2016

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