Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1371:
Optimal Sequencing of Antiretroviral Drug Cocktails under Uncertainty and Irreversibility
Mintewab Bezabih and Michael Stolpe
Abstract: This paper develops a real options approach to the optimal
sequencing of antiretroviral drug cocktails for HIV/AIDS patients in
resource-poor settings. The analysis focuses on the implications of
endogenous resistance mutations in the virus that reduce or eliminate the
effectiveness of individual drugs within a cocktail when lack of laboratory
equipment prevents these from being identified. Using a model with two drug
cocktails, we show that the first-line therapy should be introduced later
than in the case without resistance mutations and that the second-line
therapy should be introduced earlier. We go on to discuss implications for
comparative cost-effectiveness analyses.
Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Real option theory, Cost-effectiveness analysis, Combination therapy, Developing countries; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: D81,; H51,; I12; (follow links to similar papers)
25 pages, October 2007
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
copyright.
Download GhostScript
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Downloadable files:
KAP-1371.pdf
Download Statistics
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Programing by
Design Joakim Ekebom