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Kiel Institute for World Economics Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics

No 1505:
Explaining shifts in the unemployment rate with productivity slowdowns and accelerations: a co-breaking approach

Sven Schreiber

Abstract: We investigate the controversial issue whether unemployment is related to productivity growth in the long run, using U.S. data in a framework of infrequent mean shifts. Tests find (endogenously dated) shifts around 1974, 1986, and 1996, system techniques indicate that the shifts are common features, and the implied long-run link between the two variables is negative. Therefore the secular decline of unemployment since the mid 1990s indeed stemmed from higher average productivity growth. The initial and final regimes are essentially equal, thus supporting theories that explain the productivity slowdown by a slow adoption process of IT with associated learning costs

Keywords: productivity slowdown, growth, NAIRU level, common shifts; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E24,; C32,; O40; (follow links to similar papers)

27 pages, March 2009

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