Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1520:
Estimating the Shape of Economic Crises under Heterogeneity
Jonas Dovern and Nils Jannsen
Abstract: During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of
similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic
researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the
immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal
and consistent way. In this paper, we propose a standardization approach to
estimate the typical impact of economic crises. We show that our approach
leads to estimates that are much less dependent on the sample used to
estimate the typical shape and, hence, should give more reliable
information about the typical macroeconomic impact of economic crises
Keywords: Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Banking Crisis, Economic History, United States; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: E17,; E32,; E44,; E66; (follow links to similar papers)
8 pages, May 2009
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