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Kiel Institute for World Economics Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics

No 1520:
Estimating the Shape of Economic Crises under Heterogeneity

Jonas Dovern and Nils Jannsen

Abstract: During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal and consistent way. In this paper, we propose a standardization approach to estimate the typical impact of economic crises. We show that our approach leads to estimates that are much less dependent on the sample used to estimate the typical shape and, hence, should give more reliable information about the typical macroeconomic impact of economic crises

Keywords: Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Banking Crisis, Economic History, United States; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E17,; E32,; E44,; E66; (follow links to similar papers)

8 pages, May 2009

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