Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1808:
Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime
Daniel J.A. Johansson, Paul L. Lucas, Matthias Weitzel, Erik O. Ahlgren, A.B. Bazaz, Wenying Chen, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Joydeep Ghosh, Qiao-Mei Liang, Sonja Peterson, Basanta K. Pradhan, Bas J. van Ruijven, P.R. Shukla, Detlef P. van Vuuren and Yi-Ming Wei
Abstract: This paper presents a modeling comparison project on how
the 2°C climate target could affect economic and energy systems development
in China and India. The analysis uses a framework that harmonizes baseline
developments and soft-links seven national and global models being either
economy wide (CGE models) or energy system models. The analysis is based on
a global greenhouse gas emission pathway that aims at a radiative forcing
of 2.9 W/m2 in 2100 and with a policy regime based on convergence of per
capita CO2 emissions with emissions trading. Economic and energy
implications for China and India vary across models. Decreased energy
intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while
decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models.
Reliance on Coal without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is significantly
reduced in most models, while CCS is a central abatement technology in
energy system models, as is renewable and nuclear energy. Concerning
economic impacts China bears in general a higher cost than India, as China
benefits less from emissions trading. Costs are also affected by changes in
fossil fuel prices, currency depreciation from capital inflow from carbon
trading and timing of emission reductions
Keywords: Climate policy; China; India; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: N7,; O13,; P28,; Q4; (follow links to similar papers)
36 pages, November 2012
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
copyright.
Download GhostScript
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Downloadable files:
KWP%201808.pdf
Download Statistics
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Programing by
Design Joakim Ekebom