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Kiel Institute for World Economics Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics

No 1809:
Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Do It Now or Wait and See?

Daiju Narita and Martin F. Quaas

Abstract: As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals’ (farmers’) investment decisions with regard to adaptation. As a plausible case in which the delay carries policy implications, we investigate farmers’ choices when adaptation involves the use of an open-access resource (water). The results show that uncoordinated farmers with a high risk aversion may under-adapt while farmers with a low risk aversion would over-adapt under the same conditions. Private adaptation should be supported or discouraged accordingly if farmers are not convinced about the possibilities of collective resource management in the long run

Keywords: Adaptation to climate change, climate variability, risk and uncertainty, real option, water, open-access resources; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: D81,; Q20,; Q54; (follow links to similar papers)

31 pages, November 2012

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