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Kiel Institute for World Economics Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics

No 909:
Währungskrisen: Frühwarnindikatoren, Übertragungskanäle, Lösungsansätze

Horst Siebert

Abstract: The paper discusses early indicators, mechanisms of contagion and potential solutions. Multilateral approaches such as reference zones will not be practical, impeding the international capital flows implies high opportunity costs for the countries involved. The IMF should change its policy approach so that sovereign debtor countries and private creditors have no incentive to moral hazard behavior. The IMF should make sure that countries implement standards of stability at home; if not, access to credit in the case of crisis will be limited or even prohibited. The institutional arrangement of the world economy should establish a troublemaker-pays-principle which ensures that the crisis country carries the burden of instability.

Keywords: Frühwarnindikatoren, Übertragungskanäle, Lösungsansätze; (follow links to similar papers)

23 pages, February 1999

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