Working papers, Department of Economics, WU (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien)
Doris A. Oberdabernig
Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality
Abstract: Investigating how lending programs of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address
model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs
using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period
and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The
results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models
and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and
inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the
results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects
might disappear in the long-run.
Keywords: Poverty and income distribution, IMF lending programs, model uncertainty, treatment effects, cross-country analysis, developing countries; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: O11,; O15,; O19,; C31.; (follow links to similar papers)
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