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Department of Economics, WU (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien) Working papers, Department of Economics, WU (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien)

No 214:
Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Florian Huber () and Daniel Kaufmann ()

Abstract: We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment.

Keywords: Exchange rate models, trend inflation, natural rate of unemployment, Taylor rule, unobserved components stochastic volatility model; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: F31,; E52,; F41,; C5,; E31; (follow links to similar papers)

January 2016

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