European Business Schools Librarian's Group

Working Papers,
Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics

No 2-2026: Born out-of-season: Talent Allocation and Economic Conditions

Marta Boczon () and Battista Severgnini ()
Additional contact information
Marta Boczon: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16 A. 1. floor, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Battista Severgnini: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16 A. 1. floor, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark

Abstract: This paper studies how regional economic conditions, birth timing, and institutional rules shape talent allocation into high-risk/high-reward payoff structure occupations. Using rich data on English-born professional footballers and exploiting exogenous variation from European Structural Funds in the United Kingdom (1990–2000), we show that improved local conditions reduced the share of summer-born children, who are disadvantaged by age-based cutoffs in youth academies but exhibit higher underlying talent. Although regional income per capita did not significantly change, fertility timing shifted, shrinking this high-potential group: players born after the intervention exhibit lower peak market values, reflecting how economic and institutional factors can misallocate talent.

Keywords: Talent allocation; Early-life conditions; Birth-timing; Professional sports

JEL-codes: J13; J24; R11; Z22

Language: English

45 pages, January 12, 2026

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