European Business Schools Librarian's Group
Working Papers,
Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics
No 10-2026: Does Populism Hinder the Green Transition?
Roberto Balado-Naves (), Manuel Llorca () and Tooraj Jamasb ()
Additional contact information
Roberto Balado-Naves: University of Oviedo, Department of Economics
Manuel Llorca: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16 A. 1. floor, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Tooraj Jamasb: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16 A. 1. floor, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Abstract: This paper examines whether populist prime ministers hinder the green transition in the EU and increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using a panel of 230 NUTS2 regions over 1995–2022, we find evidence of environmental consequences of populist rule. We employ static and dynamic difference-in-differences (DiD) estimators, inverse probability weighting (IPW) adjustments and a heterogeneity-robust estimator. Our baseline static estimates find that populist prime ministers are associated with a 2.2–4.3% increase in regional GHG emissions, a result that withstands robustness checks. Dynamic event-study specifications show no evidence of pre-existing trends, while post-treatment effects emerge immediately after the populist transition and persist over multiple years. Once treatment-effect heterogeneity and switching treatments are fully accounted for, each additional year of populist rule raises regional emissions by around 9% over a period of 6.4 years. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this is driven entirely by right-wing populist prime ministers, while left- and center-wing populist leaders do not have statistically significant environmental impact. Analysis of mediating channels suggests that the emission-increasing effect operates primarily through short-run institutional deterioration and a temporary boost in regional GDP per capita, rather than through direct changes in the energy mix or energy intensity.
Keywords: Populism; Greenhouse gas emissions; Difference-in-differences
Language: English
35 pages, June 24, 2026
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