Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1001:
Capital and Trade Flows in Europe and the Impact of Enlargement
Claudia M. Buch and Daniel Piazolo
Abstract: The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is
likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical
evidence on the possible magnitudes is still scarce. This paper uses four
different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset
holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership
has a significant effect. Based on additional simulations of the expected
flows to ten transition economies, we conclude that for the EU candidates
actual values are still far below expected ones in most cases.
Consequently, we anticipate rising capital and trade flows with the
approach of EU accession, in particular for the seven EU candidates besides
the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.
Keywords: EU Enlargement, International Asset Holdings, Trade, Gravity Model, Simulations.; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F15; F21; (follow links to similar papers)
46 pages, September 2000
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