Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1129:
Business Cycle Volatility in Germany
Claudia M. Buch, Joerg Doepke and Christian Pierdzioch
Abstract: Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD
countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature
of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In
this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the
volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report
evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline
in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the case of the United
States. In consequence, it is difficult to answer the question whether the
decline in output volatility in Germany reflects good economic and monetary
policy or merely good luck.
Keywords: Business Cycle; Volatility; Germany; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F36; F41; F47; E32; G15; (follow links to similar papers)
32 pages, October 2002
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