EBSLG

 

 
European Business Schools Librarian's Group
Home About Series Subject/JEL codes Advanced Search
Kiel Institute for World Economics Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics

No 1231:
Pro-poor Growth in Bolivia: Accounting for External Shocks and Policy Reforms

Jann Lay, Rainer Thiele and Manfred Wiebelt

Abstract: This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia’s ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia’s medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.

Keywords: Pro-poor Growth; CGE Analysis; Bolivia; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: D58; O54; (follow links to similar papers)

34 pages, November 2004

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Downloadable files:

kap1231.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics


Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design Joakim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1231 This page was generated on 2015-03-29 21:03:50