Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1466:
Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments
Cars Hommes and Thomas Lux
Abstract: Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro
phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic
algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate
market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in
aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent
learning to forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et
al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments
Keywords: Learning, heterogeneous expectations, genetic algorithms, experimental economics; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C91,; C92,; D83,; D84,; E3; (follow links to similar papers)
40 pages, November 2008
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
copyright.
Download GhostScript
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Downloadable files:
KWP_1466_Individual%20Expectations.pdf
Download Statistics
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Programing by
Design Joakim Ekebom