Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1664:
Global Income Distribution and Poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES Scenarios
Alvaro Calzadilla
Abstract: The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) has been
widely used to analyze climate change impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation. The storylines behind these scenarios outline alternative
development pathways, which have been the base for climate research and
other studies at global, regional and country level. Based on the global
income distribution and poverty module (GlobPov), we assess the implication
of the IPCC SRES scenarios on global poverty and inequality. We find that
global poverty and inequality measures are sensitive to the downscaling
methodology used. Our results show that future economic growth is crucial
for poverty reduction. Higher per capita incomes tend to favour poverty
reduction, while higher population growth rates delay this progress.
Scenarios that combine high economic growth and convergence assumptions
with low population growth rates produce better outcomes. China and India
play a central role on poverty reduction and global inequality. While high
economic growth rates in China and India may lift millions out of poverty,
high population growth and stagnation in African economies could offset the
situation
Keywords: Global, poverty, income distribution, inequality, emission scenarios; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: O50,; I32,; O15,; Q54; (follow links to similar papers)
45 pages, November 2010
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