EBSLG

 

 
European Business Schools Librarian's Group
Home About Series Subject/JEL codes Advanced Search
Kiel Institute for World Economics Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics

No 1706:
Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets - Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Stefan Reitz, Jan-Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann

Abstract: Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or not regressive and extrapolative expectations themselves exhibit significant nonlinear dynamics. The empirical results are based on a new data set from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations in the neighborhood of the fundamental value, whereas expectations tend to be stabilizing in the presence of substantial oil price misalignment

Keywords: agent based models, nonlinear expectations, survey data; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: F31,; D84,; C33; (follow links to similar papers)

39 pages, June 2011

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Downloadable files:

kwp_1706.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics


Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design Joakim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1706 This page was generated on 2015-03-29 21:03:17