Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1747:
Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Food Security: Evidence from Yemen
Clemens Breisinger, Olivier Ecker, Perrihan Al-Riffai, Richard Robertson and Rainer Thiele
Abstract: This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and
global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on
agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global
climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our
simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for
food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes
and food security. Rural nonfarm households are hit hardest as they tend to
be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households
also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers
of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the
ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to
future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest
itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative
climate scenarios considered, with implications for income and nutrition
Keywords: Climate change, Food security, Hunger, Development, Growth, Yemen, Middle East and North Africa; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C63,; C68,; O13,; O53,; Q54; (follow links to similar papers)
34 pages, November 2011
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