Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 1763:
External Drivers of Institutional Change in Central Asia – Regional Integration Schemes and the Role of Russia and China
Rainer Schweickert, Inna Melnykovska and Hedwig Plamper
Abstract: Russia and China are assumed to challenge democratization
and to promote autocracy. In a first step, we analyze Central Asia as the
most-likely case, considering both Russia and China as relevant external
actors. We develop a concept for our analysis based on the different
strategies of Russia (dominance) and China (doing-business) towards the
region and present the results of a qualitative study of the main
dimensions of autocracy promotion with respect to regional and bilateral
schemes. In a second step, we extend a previous framework (Melnykovska and
Schweickert 2011) and provide econometric evidence based on a panel of
post-socialist countries. We show that bilateral schems are (still) more
relevant for external influences in Central Asia and that (unintentionally)
China’s doing-business approach may in fact promote institutional change.
Arguably, democratization should not be a precondition for cooperation as
in European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) but rather be promoted by sweeping
economic cooperation incentives
Keywords: Central Asia, China, Russia, Governance, Regional Integration, Trade, Minorities, Military Threat; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F53,; F59; (follow links to similar papers)
38 pages, March 2012
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