Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for World Economics
No 955:
What Can the ECB Learn from Bundesbank Interventions? ; Evidence on the Link Between Exchange Rate Volatility and Interventions
Jörg Döpke and Christian Pierdzioch
Abstract: Using daily Bundesbank foreign exchange market
intervention data, we employ a multinomial logit approach to estimate an
intervention reaction function for the German Central Bank using options
implied volatilities and the deviation of the exchange rate from its target
level as explanatory variables. The empirical results underscore that
distinguishing between positive and negative interventions improves the
statistical properties of the Bundesbank reaction function. As the
Bundesbank is often being seen as a paragon for the European Central Bank
(ECB), we also discuss the implications of our results for the intervention
policy of the ECB.
Keywords: Multinomial logit model; exchange rate volatility; central bank foreign exchange market interventions; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F31; (follow links to similar papers)
30 pages, November 1999
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