European Business Schools Librarian's Group

Department of Economics Working Papers,
Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics

Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Florian Huber () and Daniel Kaufmann ()
Additional contact information
Florian Huber: Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business
Daniel Kaufmann: KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Abstract: We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment.

Keywords: Exchange rate models, trend inflation, natural rate of unemployment, Taylor rule, unobserved components stochastic volatility model

JEL-codes: F31; E52; F41; C5; E31 January 2016

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