European Business Schools Librarian's Group

Department of Economics Working Papers,
Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics

Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage

Florian Huber () and Thomas Zörner ()
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Florian Huber: Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business
Thomas Zörner: Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract: This paper considers Bayesian estimation of the threshold vector error correction (TVECM) model in moderate to large dimensions. Using the lagged cointegrating error as a threshold variable gives rise to additional difficulties that are typically solved by relying on large sample approximations. Relying on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods we circumvent these issues by avoiding computationally prohibitive estimation strategies like the grid search. Due to the proliferation of parameters we use novel global-local shrinkage priors in the spirit of Griffin and Brown (2010). We illustrate the merits of our approach in an application to five exchange rates vis-á-vis the US dollar and assess whether a given currency is over or undervalued. Moreover, we perform a forecasting comparison to investigate whether it pays off to adopt a non-linear modeling approach relative to a set of simpler benchmark models.

Keywords: non-linear modeling, shrinkage priors, multivariate cointegration, exchange rate modeling

JEL-codes: C11; C32; C53; F31; F47 June 2017

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