European Business Schools Librarian's Group

Department of Economics Working Papers,
Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics

No 268: We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma () and Jan Capek ()
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Jesus Crespo Cuaresma: Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business
Jan Capek: Masaryk University

Abstract: We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size of the fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multiplier estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation.

Keywords: Fiscal multiplier, structural VAR, meta-analysis

JEL-codes: E62; C32 August 2018

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